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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd