A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
